However, there are still many institutions and investment predators who are optimistic about the outlook for gold. Hedge fund predator John Paulson has been aggressively longing gold since 2009. Until now, Paulson is still confident in golNetEased. Paulson said that in the next three to five years, as the United States and the United Kingdom substantially increase their money supply, the price of gold may rise to as high as $4,000 per ounce. According to data, Paulson's funds hold $4.4 billion in SDPRETF.
From a graphical point of view, Qin Yunlong analyzed that the price of Shanghai gold fell slightly last week, breaking below the daily-level moving average system, indicating that the short-term upward pressure is greater. From the perspective of the medium-term trend, the fluctuation range of the gold price has been shrinking since September, that is, the high point is continuously decreasing, and the low point is constantly rising. It belongs to a more standard relay triangle pattern. Generally speaking, this pattern will continue the previous trend. , And the price of gold in the early period is rising, so the price of gold in the later period should choose to break upward. At present, the price of gold is within the triangle area. If it breaks upward, you can enter the market and do more. If it falls and breaks the upward trend line, it indicates that the price of gold is likely to have a top pattern and turn downward.
The August employment data released by the US Department of Labor on Friday evening showed that the world's largest economy's series of efforts to address the labor market did not seem to be sustained. Although the unemployment rate has steadily fallen to 7.3%, its lowest point since December 2008. However, the number of non-agricultural employment is indeed far below the expected level of 180,000, and the actual value is only 169,000. Compared with the mixed data in August, the revised labor market data for June and July looks a little horrible. Among them, the number of newly-increased jobs in July was revised down from 162,000 to 104,000, and down 58,000. In June, it was reduced by 16,000. After the sudden release of the data, the market's concerns about the Fed's gradual reduction of QE in September have eased, and the US dollar index has fallen sharply. As of Friday's close, the US dollar index was at 82.15, down 48 basis points, or 0.59%. At the same time, gold and other non-US currencies have been boosted and strengthened sharply. Among them, spot gold as of Friday closed at 1,390.80 US dollars, up 24.8 US dollars, or 1.82%. The yen rose 100 basis points to 99.11, an increase of 1%. The euro also reversed the continuous decline in the market since the end of August, rising by 58 basis points, or 0.44%. The market generally believes that the employment data released on September 6 will provide the necessary guidance for the action to reduce the scale of asset purchases in the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee's interest rate meeting held in the middle of the month. If the data performs well, it will strengthen the Fed’s determination to cut QE on a larger scale, because regardless of whether the economic recovery is really sound, the unemployment rate of the world’s largest economy has dropped from 8.1% at the time of QE to August this year. 7.3% of this is an indisputable fact. Correspondingly, if the data does not perform well, it is very likely that the Fed will reduce the scale of the September cut, and the possibility of the Fed's postponement of the cut cannot be ruled out. Therefore, after the release of the data, the market believes that the job market in August as a whole was slightly empty, which to a certain extent shakes the market's confidence in the Fed's reduction of QE in September. But in fact, although the 168,000 new jobs are less than the 180,000 expected, it is still higher than the data of 162,000 before the July revision. This reflects that despite some changes, the US job market is still growing. Continuous improvement. Therefore, we believe that the slightly bearish economic data will not have a long-term impact on the trend. The market is currently focusing on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting to be held in the middle of the month and the evolution of the situation in Syria. The situation in Syria is still confusing. At the G20 summit, the heads of the 20 nations spent half a day hoping to discuss a solution to the Syrian issue. Regrettably, neither the camp that hopes to resolve it through military means nor the camp that hopes to resolve it through political means has not wavered in the slightest. Both Putin and Obama said that the meeting was constructive, but in the end they did not reach a consensus. On the contrary, Putin said after the meeting that if Syria is attacked, Russia will provide necessary assistance to Syria. On the other hand, Obama is preparing a speech to the people of the whole country to explain the necessity and urgency of a military strike against Syria. Currently, the United States, Turkey, Canada, Saudi Arabia and France support the use of force against Syria. Countries such as Russia, India, Indonesia, Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, and Italy oppose military strikes. However, Germany, the largest economy in Europe, has shown an attitude that it is not a matter of concern and has not made any clear statements. Britain, the third largest economy in Europe, had to give up the possibility of military action due to opposition from Congress. There are relatively few important economic data this week. Noteworthy are the inflation data released on Monday and the retail sales and industrial output data released on Tuesday. In addition, Germany will release August CPI data on Wednesday. On the same day, a series of British labor market data including the unemployment rate will also be released. In the second half of the week, the Eurozone will announce industrial output data and the September European Central Bank's monthly report. The US will also release retail data and consumer confidence index on Friday night. The quality of the data will still have a certain impact on the mid-month Fed meeting. As the Super Week has just passed, the market needs to ease tensions to welcome the upcoming Fed Open Market Committee meeting. The trend next week is expected to be relatively stable, mainly focusing on the 1360-1420 range. In addition, the situation in Syria is imminent. If, as Obama wishes, NATO forces headed by the United States begin a military attack on Syria, the market's risk sentiment will change. Safe-haven assets such as gold, yen, and Swiss francs will be favored, which will effectively boost asset prices. But if the White House continues to postpone the time for military action, or any other news that is beneficial to the situation in Syria, it will increase the value of risky assets and put pressure on gold and other assets with a hedging attribute.
From the historical data point of view, the Fed’s first round of quantitative easing (QE1) was launched to the end, gold prices rose by 36%, and silver prices rose by 65%; the second round of quantitative easing (QE2) was launched to the end. Prices have risen by 20.6% and silver prices have risen by 40%.
On Tuesday, North Korea and South Korea erupted in their worst military conflict in years. North Korea fired hundreds of artillery shells on South Korea-controlled Yanping Island, causing many houses to catch fire and many casualties. The South Korean military also fought back, and at the same time South Korea declared a state of emergency, the situation between North and South Korea suddenly became extremely tense. The international gold price rose by 1.46% to US$1,379 per ounce that night. The author believes that the possibility of further escalation of the conflict between the two countries is unlikely, and the international gold price will still maintain the original price trajectory. If the price of gold rises in the short term, it will face callback pressure.
However, as far as the long-term prospects of gold are concerned, as long as investors lose confidence in fiat currency, its remonetization story will continue. Pay attention to the gold lease price; the soaring gold lease price will be a good leading indicator that the price of gold will rise sharply, because it reflects a shortage of loanable gold. The rising price of gold leases will cause gold to enter a state of spot premium, because gold holders are unwillinNetEaseg to sell forward gold under any circumstances. The current high spot premiums on the price of gold coins prove this trend.
It is also a good choice to use paper gold as part of asset allocation. Jiang Haiyang said that the investment threshold of paper gold is relatively low, and it can be invested in a few hundred yuan or several thousand yuan. No leverage means that even if you lose money, you will not lose everything. If you think the market has an opportunity, you might as well try to allocate some. After all, the global economic uncertainty is still increasing.
However, investors who invest in gold and silver coins are more optimistic about the market outlook, often ignoring this part of the transaction cost, and are confident that the long-term value-added space of gold and silver coins in the future can far exceed this part of the spread. Therefore, investors should weigh their own investment objectives, calculate the holding time and cost and make investment decisions.
The postponement of the Fed's interest rate hike date will increase the upward momentum of gold prices. Zou Lihu, an analyst at CITIC Futures, believes that the price of gold has fully factored into the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates in the middle of this year. Therefore, even if the expectation is fulfilled, the price of gold will not be affected by a significant negative. On the contrary, when the US economic data is weak and the expectation of a US dollar interest rate hike weakens, the upward momentum of international gold prices will be stronger.
In August 1999, the price of gold was only US$255 per ounce. Today, the price of gold has stabilized at US$1500 per ounce. In ten years, we have hardly seen a sharp drop or major correction. Perhaps we have reason to predict that the price of gold will continue to rise, because it has been so for more than a decade. But the price of any asset cannot continue to rise indefinitely. There will always be a callback, there will always be a crash, and there will always be a bear market. Is the gold price rush halfway or the end of the bull market? Is there an unknown bubble brewing here?