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In the early morning of today (20th) Beijing time, the Federal Reserve concluded its 3-day monetary policy meeting and released the March interest rate resolution and the latest economic forecast report. Subsequently, Fed Chairman Yellen held a press conference on the monetary policy meeting. The interest rate resolution pointed out that the Federal Reserve will maintain the 0.25% federal interest rate unchanged and reduce the size of monthly asset purchases by 10 billion to 55 billion US dollars. In addition, the Fed has decided to abandon the 6.5% unemployment rate threshold in the future interest rate hike path, but this does not mean that the Fed’s commitment to policy intentions will change. In terms of inflation, the Federal Reserve predicts that by the end of 2014, inflation will reach 1.5%-1.6%. It reached 1.5%-2% at the end of 2015, and reached 1.7%-2% in 2016. In the press conference, Yellen elaborated on the current concerns of the market. She believes that the main reason for the decline in economic indicators at the beginning of the year was the impact of bad weather. However, there has been a significant improvement recently, the labor market is continuously improving, and the labor participation rate is rising. In the Q&A session, Yellen first stated that the economy still needs a highly loose monetary policy as support. But when answering QE’s questions, Yellen believed that it was realistic to completely terminate the quantitative easing policy this fall. The timing of the interest rate hike may occur about 6 months after the end of debt purchases. After the Fed's resolution and press conference, many financial assets came under pressure. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 114.02 points to 16222.17 points, or 0.7%. Nasdaq fell 23.94 points, or 0.65%, to close at 3,682.68 points. The euro fell sharply by 121 basis points to 1.3812, or 0.87%. The pound also fell 60 basis points to 1.6532. The precious metals market situation is not optimistic either. As of the end of the U.S. market, London Gold reported $1,329.32, down $25.92, or 1.91%. London silver fell by US$0.22 to US$20.58, a decrease of 1.06%. The US dollar was boosted by the resolution and rose sharply. The data shows that the US dollar index rose 68 basis points on the previous trading day and returned to above 80 to report 80.11, an increase of 0.86%. In the Asian market today (20th), in early trading in Singapore, precious metals stabilized at a low level and rebounded to a certain extent. After the market opened, the market diverged. As of 10:00 Beijing time, London Gold fell slightly by US$0.2 to US$1330.43, a decrease of 0.02%; London Silver saw a slight increase of 7 cents, an increase of 0.34%, to US$20.65. Operationally, as gold fell below the important watershed of $1,350, we think the market outlook is not optimistic. However, due to the large decline this week, the market may have a certain degree of pullback, and the target is around 1345-1348 US dollars. Later, we expect gold to lead other precious metals back to weakness, and it is very likely to return to the upper edge of the previous oscillation range near $1270. Therefore, we suggest that the main strategy for investors in the future is to sell on rallies. The main support for gold SMS is: 1324/1309/1300; the main resistance is: 1335/1341/1350. Activist investors can set up short orders near $1340, with a profit target of 1324, and break the position to see $1310. Steady investors can wait for resistance near 1350 to set up a short order and the goal is the same.
From a technical perspective, the weekly K-line is still dominated by multi-party forces, and gold's long-term gains have not changed; in the short-term, the support of the 1700 integer mark is still effective. Next, the real test of the price of gold is on the 1670 line. Once the price of gold effectively falls below 1670 (the low point in the past two weeks), the price of gold will be bearish in the mid-line. On the contrary, the price of gold will continue to rise.
The scale of QE1 is that the Federal Reserve bought US$300 billion in Treasury bills, US$1.25 billion in residential mortgage securities, US$100 billion in Fannie Mae and mortgage bonds, which triggered the rise in US stocks in March 2009. In August 2010, QE2 was hinted at. From November 2010 to May 2011, it bought 600 billion US dollars of Treasury bills. That is to say, it injected more than one trillion US dollars before and after. As for OT2, it bought 400 billion US dollars of bonds for 6 years or more to reduce long-term interest, and 400 billion US dollars of short-term bonds of 3 years or less. The above decision triggered a sharp drop in US stocks and gold prices in September this year. . It is estimated that the interest rate on the 30-year U.S. Treasury fell from 3.6% to 2.6% (the level at the time of the Lehman incident in 2008.)
News on the evening of November 14th, Beijing time, Goldman Sachs Group (GS) announced on Monday that it raised its price expectations for gold and silver because it is expected that U.S. interest rates will remain at a low level, and precious metal prices are continuing to be affected by the euro. Support from the sovereign debt crisis in the region.
The lowerBest Precious Metal Mutual Fund-than-expected US debt ceiling plan, the escalation of the European interbank liquidity crisis, and the weak global economic recovery, etc., broke out in August, driving the global stock market to fall in resonance. This makes the loss of QDII investment in overseas markets particularly considerable. The data shows that as of August 24, the 42 QDII funds included in the statistics have experienced an average drop of more than 10% since August, which is much higher than the average drop of 2.9% of domestic partial stock funds. At the same time, the performance divergence between QDII funds is very serious. The top No.1 Global Gold and E Fund Gold gained 7.9% and 6.1% respectively, while the last ranked E Fund Asia lost 18.2%.
In addition, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said in an interview with the media on Tuesday that he expects the US economy to continue to improve and he is inclined to gradually reduce the scale of debt purchases. Regarding the unexpectedly weaker-than-expected non-agricultural data in March, Brad said that this does not change his overall view of the economic improvement. He predicts that by the end of 2013, the US unemployment rate will drop to around 7%.
What happened to Bai Yin? The rapid rise and fall is like a roller coaster, thrilling. Since last summer, after climbing all the way to the highest level in 30 years, it plummeted in early May, from nearly 50 US dollars an ounce to 35 US dollars in a week, a drop of 30%. Such a shock is rare in any investment product, and it is difficult to explain it with fundamental factors. The market is a zero-sum game. Obviously some people make a lot of money, some people lose money, and a few are happy and some are worried.
On June 23, under the vigorous promotion of the United States, the International Energy Agency cooperated with developed countries to sell 60 million barrels of oil to suppress oil prices; at the same time, market concerns about the slowdown in economic growth also put pressure on international commodity prices, and oil and commodities fell one after another. , Gold and silver also declined and fell to a key resistance level. For a time, many gold reviewers attributed the decline in gold prices to the decline in the commodity system, because everyone believed that gold belongs to commodities. In fact, it is not accurate to attribute gold completely to commodities.