The central bank’s increase in the deposit reserve ratio is mainly to prevent inflation aPrecious Metal Trading Stationnd control bank credit. The increase in deposit reserve is usually negative for the gold market, but it will not trigger much adjustment for the entire stock market. The medium-term trend remains unchanged. This is the first increase. Interest rates have been digested in the market smoothly, and the second rate hike is expected to come soon.
ISIS’ genocide and armed attacks continue. On Saturday, the Islamic State launched an attack on the largest Baiji oil refinery in Iraq. The raid lasted from late Saturday night to Sunday morning. A total of 37 militants were killed. In addition, it is reported that the murderer who brutally killed the American journalist Foley has confirmed that the Royal Air Force (SAS) special forces have entered the northern part of Iraq to search and kill the murderer.
It is also a good choice to use paper gold as part of asset allocation. Jiang Haiyang said that the investment threshold of paper gold is relatively low, and it can be invested in a few hundred yuan or several thousand yuan. No leverage means that even if you lose money, you will not lose everything. If you think the market has an opportunity, you might as well try to allocate some. After all, the global economic uncertainty is still increasing.
The recent drop in the price of gold is due to the large number of selling orders triggered by the expiration of the COMEX December gold options, which led to the deterioration of the technical pattern and more follow-ups. In fact, there is no obvious reason for the decline in fundamentals, and even the dollar index has been falling. Li Ning said.
Mr. Philip Klapwijk, Chairman of GFMS, delivered a speech at the Chinese version press conference and commented on some major supply/demand trend changes that have occurred this year. He pointed out that the company expects the overall supply to increase in 2009. This is because it is expected that the further reduction in gold sales from the net official sector may be offset by a moderate increase in gold mine production, especially the record recovery of old gold. Regarding the demand situation, the processing demand dominated by gold jewelry is expected to fall sharply in 2009, which is caused by the high price of gold and large fluctuations following the global economic slowdown.
However, in the first few trading days into May, the US dollar index fell to around 73 and stopped falling within a narrow range. Affected by this, international gold prices fell nearly 3%. ThePrecious Metal Trading Station main domestic Shanghai gold contract au1112 followed the trend of international gold prices in April, with a cumulative increase of 5%. It has fallen by 1.5% so far in May. Currently, the Shanghai gold au1112 contract remains adjusted above the previous high of 311.70.
The August employment data released by the US Department of Labor on Friday evening showed that the world's largest economy's series of efforts to address the labor market did not seem to be sustained. Although the unemployment rate has steadily fallen to 7.3%, its lowest point since December 2008. However, the number of non-agricultural employment is indeed far below the expected level of 180,000, and the actual value is only 169,000. Compared with the mixed data in August, the revised labor market data for June and July looks a little horrible. Among them, the number of newly-increased jobs in July was revised down from 162,000 to 104,000, and down 58,000. In June, it was reduced by 16,000. After the sudden release of the data, the market's concerns about the Fed's gradual reduction of QE in September have eased, and the US dollar index has fallen sharply. As of Friday's close, the US dollar index was at 82.15, down 48 basis points, or 0.59%. At the same time, gold and other non-US currencies have been boosted and strengthened sharply. Among them, spot gold as of Friday closed at 1,390.80 US dollars, up 24.8 US dollars, or 1.82%. The yen rose 100 basis points to 99.11, an increase of 1%. The euro also reversed the continuous decline in the market since the end of August, rising by 58 basis points, or 0.44%. The market generally believes that the employment data released on September 6 will provide the necessary guidance for the action to reduce the scale of asset purchases in the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee's interest rate meeting held in the middle of the month. If the data performs well, it will strengthen the Fed’s determination to cut QE on a larger scale, because regardless of whether the economic recovery is really sound, the unemployment rate of the world’s largest economy has dropped from 8.1% at the time of QE to August this year. 7.3% of this is an indisputable fact. Correspondingly, if the data does not perform well, it is very likely that the Fed will reduce the scale of the September cut, and the possibility of the Fed's postponement of the cut cannot be ruled out. Therefore, after the release of the data, the market believes that the job market in August as a whole was slightly empty, which to a certain extent shakes the market's confidence in the Fed's reduction of QE in September. But in fact, although the 168,000 new jobs are less than the 180,000 expected, it is still higher than the data of 162,000 before the July revision. This reflects that despite some changes, the US job market is still growing. Continuous improvement. Therefore, we believe that the slightly bearish economic data will not have a long-term impact on the trend. The market is currently focusing on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting to be held in the middle of the month and the evolution of the situation in Syria. The situation in Syria is still confusing. At the G20 summit, the heads of the 20 nations spent half a day hoping to discuss a solution to the Syrian issue. Regrettably, neither the camp that hopes to resolve it through military means nor the camp that hopes to resolve it through political means has not wavered in the slightest. Both Putin and Obama said that the meeting was constructive, but in the end they did not reach a consensus. On the contrary, Putin said after the meeting that if Syria is attacked, Russia will provide necessary assistance to Syria. On the other hand, Obama is preparing a speech to the people of the whole country to explain the necessity and urgency of a military strike against Syria. Currently, the United States, Turkey, Canada, Saudi Arabia and France support the use of force against Syria. Countries such as Russia, India, Indonesia, Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, and Italy oppose military strikes. However, Germany, the largest economy in Europe, has shown an attitude that it is not a matter of concern and has not made any clear statements. Britain, the third largest economy in Europe, had to give up the possibility of military action due to opposition from Congress. There are relatively few important economic data this week. Noteworthy are the inflation data released on Monday and the retail sales and industrial output data released on Tuesday. In addition, Germany will release August CPI data on Wednesday. On the same day, a series of British labor market data including the unemployment rate will also be released. In the second half of the week, the Eurozone will announce industrial output data and the September European Central Bank's monthly report. The US will also release retail data and consumer confidence index on Friday night. The quality of the data will still have a certain impact on the mid-month Fed meeting. As the Super Week has just passed, the market needs to ease tensions to welcome the upcoming Fed Open Market Committee meeting. The trend next week is expected to be relatively stable, mainly focusing on the 1360-1420 range. In addition, the situation in Syria is imminent. If, as Obama wishes, NATO forces headed by the United States begin a military attack on Syria, the market's risk sentiment will change. Safe-haven assets such as gold, yen, and Swiss francs will be favored, which will effectively boost asset prices. But if the White House continues to postpone the time for military action, or any other news that is beneficial to the situation in Syria, it will increase the value of risky assets and put pressure on gold and other assets with a hedging attribute.
After the financial crisis, although the world’s major economies have entered the recovery phase to varying degrees, various thorny issues still coexist, such as the high unemployment and inflation rate in the United States, the controversial quantitative easing policy, and the intensifying European sovereign debt crisis , Have caused ups and downs in the trend of foreign exchange and gold.
MarexNorthAmericaLLC broker CarlosPerez-Santalla said on Wednesday that the European debt crisis has reappeared, which has stimulated people's risk aversion. At the same time, due to the escalation of conflict in Egypt, investors are gradually returning to the gold market.
Last night, the employment data released by the U.S. Department of Labor was lower than expected for the second consecutive month, causing the market to question the Fed’s eagerness to withdraw from quantitative easing, which pushed up precious metals and other non-US currencies collectively. It fell sharply. Information from the data center showed that spot gold was promoted by news, and New York once touched above $1,270 in intraday trading. As of the close, it was reported at US$1,266.84, an increase of US$9.16, or 0.73%; spot silver followed the gold to rise together, but the range was limited. To the end of the New York market, a total of 0.02 US dollars, an increase of 0.1%, closed at 19.98 US dollars. At 9:30 p.m. Beijing time yesterday, the January employment data released by the US Department of Labor showed that although the non-agricultural employment population increased significantly compared with December, it was still far below expectations. Previously, the market believed that with the gradual improvement of the weather, the number of non-agricultural employment changes in January may rise to around 185,000, but the final figure was only 113,000. The market was disappointed by this, and then gold soared and US Treasury yields fell. The unemployment rate for January released during the same period continued to fall by 0.1 percentage point to 6.6% from the previous month’s 6.7%, and the labor participation rate rose by 0.2 percentage point from the previous value to 63%. But the market still believes that the unemployment rate data does not truly reflect the current domestic labor situation in the United States. The extremely low willingness to work and the lowering of the base have contributed to a rapid decline in the unemployment rate. Last week, the world's most important central bank carried out the transfer of supreme power. Ben Bernanke, who has been in charge of the Federal Reserve for eight years, handed over the pointer to Janet Yellen. On February 2, the first female chairperson of the Federal Reserve was sworn in and began her chair career for at least four years. The market is now looking forward to how Yellen will deal with the baggage left to her last term; how to recover the world's largest economy from the worst economic crisis after World War II; and how to return US interest rates to normal levels. From a technical perspective, as recent US economic data generally fell short of expectations, both gold and silver moved from a low level to near the upper edge of the channel. Yesterday's employment data was worse than expected, which further stimulated the continued upward momentum of precious metals. Among them, spot silver closed above the upper edge of the downward channel formed from August 28, 2013 to the present, and stood above the important resistance of $20. We think it is very possible for some time to come to study the situation of last week and continue to regain the lost ground.